Dyness Knowledge | The Next 10 Years of Global C&I Storage: Who Will Soar? Who Will Exit?

The four core development directions of global industrial and commercial reserves over the next 10 years

The underlying logic of global industrial and commercial energy storage is being comprehensively upgraded from a "single electricity cost-saving tool" to "core zero-carbon equipment for enterprises + core resources for global grid flexibility," with only four core directions.

1. Complete Revenue Model Restructuring: From solely relying on peak-valley electricity price arbitrage, the model is upgraded to diversified monetization through "electricity cost optimization + grid ancillary services + carbon revenue + demand response." Revenue from carbon compliance will become one of the core profit drivers for global projects.

2. Precise Technological Iteration: High-safety lithium iron phosphate batteries remain the absolute mainstream, while sodium-ion and flow batteries are gradually penetrating low-temperature and long-duration scenarios. Long-cycle large cells, high-voltage cascading, AI intelligent dispatching, and seamless switching between grid-connected and off-grid environments are becoming standard features, with safety and reliability taking precedence.

3. Global Market Expansion: China remains the world's largest producer and core market. The EU and the US, relying on carbon policies and subsidies, firmly hold the second and third largest market positions, respectively. Emerging markets with weak grids, such as Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and Latin America, will become the fastest-growing blue ocean market.

4. Thorough Upgrade in Application Forms: The model is shifting from "single-unit energy storage" to integrated "photovoltaics + energy storage + charging/swapping + microgrid" solutions. Simultaneously, through virtual power plant aggregation, it is becoming a core distributed resource for global grid frequency regulation and peak shaving.

Global market demand: projected to increase tenfold over the next 10 years, with two phases of certain growth.

Over the next 10 years, global industrial and commercial reserves will experience a two-stage growth pattern: first, rapid expansion in volume, followed by stable growth in quality. Key data is readily apparent.

• Phase 1 (2026-2030, High-Speed Growth): The global CAGR is projected to exceed 35%, with cumulative installed capacity expected to surpass 300 GWh by 2030, and the market size exceeding $100 billion. The core drivers are the EU carbon tariff, the US IRA subsidies, China's power market reform, and the rigid demand brought about by the global AI computing power boom.

• Phase 2 (2031-2036, Quality Improvement and Stable Growth): Industry growth is expected to slow to 15%-20%, but profitability will improve significantly. Cumulative installed capacity is projected to surpass 700 GWh by 2036. The market will shift from "price competition" to "competition on solutions and full lifecycle services," with long-term energy storage and high-reliability scenarios becoming the absolute mainstream.

Regionally, China, the EU, and the US together account for over 80% of the global market share, making them the absolute core. Emerging markets such as Southeast Asia, the Middle East, Africa, and Latin America will become the fastest-growing battlegrounds for overseas expansion over the next 10 years.

Key Differentiation: Five major scenarios continue to see explosive growth, while two types of scenarios are rapidly exiting the market.

Over the next 10 years, global industrial and commercial reserves will not experience a "general price increase," but rather extreme differentiation—scenarios with long-term value will continue to emerge, while projects that rely solely on arbitrage will be quickly eliminated.

Five core scenarios where demand continues to surge

AI Data Center/Computing Cluster

The world's largest growth sector is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of over 60% in the next 10 years. Whether in China, the US, or Europe, the explosion of large-scale AI models has led to a frenzied expansion of computing infrastructure, requiring computing centers to achieve 99.999% power supply reliability. Simultaneously, peak shaving and valley filling are needed to reduce enormous electricity costs, and supporting green electricity is required to meet carbon compliance requirements; energy storage will become a standard feature of global computing centers.

2. Zero-carbon factories/export manufacturing enterprises

The largest base of global industrial and commercial energy storage is expected to account for more than 40% of global installed capacity. EU carbon tariffs and global carbon neutrality targets are forcing global export companies and energy-intensive factories (steel, chemical, electronics, and automotive) to obtain green electricity certificates and reduce the carbon footprint of their products through "photovoltaic + energy storage". Otherwise, they will face high tariffs and market access restrictions, making it a rigid global demand.

3. Commercial complexes/hospitals/transportation hubs

The core application scenario for urban industrial and commercial energy storage is expected to maintain a stable compound annual growth rate of over 25%. These locations have zero tolerance for power outages, and their peak-to-valley electricity load varies greatly. Energy storage can serve as an emergency backup power source, optimize electricity costs, and participate in grid demand response to generate additional revenue. It is a core component for the flexible construction of urban power grids in major cities worldwide.

4. Virtual power plant aggregated energy storage

A new global trend is emerging, with the aggregated capacity projected to account for over 30% of global industrial and commercial storage by 2030. Major global economies such as Germany, the United States, and China are vigorously promoting the construction of virtual power plants, aggregating thousands of scattered industrial and commercial storage devices into a single "virtual power station" to participate in grid frequency regulation and peak shaving, bringing additional stable revenue to enterprises and completely breaking through the profit bottleneck of single arbitrage.

Microgrid energy storage in islands/remote areas

In the core overseas expansion sector, the compound annual growth rate may exceed 40% over the next 10 years. Emerging markets such as Southeast Asia, Africa, and Latin America suffer from weak and unstable power grids in many industrial and commercial areas, leading to a long-standing reliance on expensive diesel generators. However, microgrid systems combining photovoltaics and energy storage offer electricity costs more than 50% lower than diesel generators, making them the optimal alternative, and demand is expected to continue to surge.

Two scenarios where demand is rapidly fading

1. Small, inefficient projects that rely solely on peak-valley arbitrage.

These projects will be rapidly phased out globally. They rely solely on the peak-valley electricity price difference for profit, with no other sources of revenue. As global electricity market reforms deepen and electricity prices fluctuate more significantly, the returns from arbitrage alone become extremely unstable. At the same time, small projects have high compliance and operation and maintenance costs, as well as significant safety risks. After 2030, the market share of these projects will continue to decline.

2. Isolated energy storage projects without photovoltaic support

Except for extremely special power supply scenarios, these isolated energy storage systems have largely exited the market. Under the global trend towards carbon neutrality, the core needs of enterprises installing energy storage, besides reducing electricity costs, include reducing their carbon footprint and obtaining green electricity certificates. Isolated energy storage cannot achieve green electricity consumption and offers no carbon benefits. Meanwhile, the self-consumption model of "photovoltaic + energy storage" is more than 30% more economical than installing energy storage alone. In the future, for special scenarios requiring purely emergency power supply, these isolated energy storage projects will gradually disappear.

Over the next 10 years, global industrial and commercial energy storage will never be a "win-win" opportunity, but rather a highly differentiated landscape where "choosing the right path leads to success, while choosing the wrong path results in elimination." The underlying logic of the industry remains unchanged: scenarios that help companies reduce costs, ensure power grid supply, and reduce global carbon emissions will continue to emerge. Projects that rely solely on policy arbitrage and lack long-term core value will inevitably be eliminated by the market.